Wind Field and Solar Radiation Characterization and Forecasting Richard Perez

Pages 263
Views 162
Size 11.8 MiB
Downloads 12
Wind Field and Solar Radiation Characterization and Forecasting Richard Perez

Contents

Part I Analysis and Characterization of Geographical and
Meteorological Data
Acquisition and Analysis of Meteorological Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Javier Calvo Sánchez, Gema Morales Martín and Jesús Polo
Characterization of Geographical and Meteorological Parameters . . . . . 41
Gustavo Montero, Eduardo Rodríguez and Albert Oliver
Discretization of the Region of Interest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
J. Manuel Cascón, José María Escobar and Rafael Montenegro
Part II Wind Field Diagnostic and Forecasting
Wind Field Diagnostic Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89
Eduardo Rodríguez, Gustavo Montero and Albert Oliver
Wind Field Deterministic Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 113
Javier Calvo Sánchez and Gema Morales Martín
Wind Field Probabilistic Forecasting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129
Albert Oliver, Eduardo Rodríguez and Luis Mazorra-Aguiar
Part III Solar Radiation Diagnostic and Forecasting
Solar Resource Variability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149
Richard Perez, Philippe Lauret, Marc Perez, Mathieu David,
Thomas E. Hoff and Sergey Kivalov
Solar Radiation Forecasting with Statistical Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Luis Mazorra-Aguiar and Felipe Díaz
ix
Solar Radiation Probabilistic Forecasting. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 201
Mathieu David and Philippe Lauret
Solar Radiation Maps . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Felipe Díaz, Gustavo Montero and Luis Mazorra-Aguiar

Foreword

A central challenge in assessing renewable energy resources consists in elaborating
operational previsions of their temporal and regional fluctuations. Without adequate
forecasting methods, the degree of penetration of these energies in the power grid
will not meet the expectations triggered by climate change and geopolitical issues.
Consequently, the present volume describes recent advances in both deterministic
and probabilistic forecasting of wind fields and solar radiation, with focus on
complex terrain conditions that are frequently encountered in practice.
The first two chapters expose and characterize the geophysical and meteorological
data and parameters upon which the methods presented rely: requirements
for spatial and temporal resolution, and availability of multichannel remote sensing
from space as operational data sources. Low altitude orbiting satellites provide land
cover and albedo data, as well as digital terrain elevation grids, where traditional
land-based sources do not exist. Geostationary satellites provide operational
meteorological data such as cloud cover with high temporal resolution, as well as
atmospheric soundings used as input for numerical weather prediction models, that,
in turn, yield the primary data for wind field forecasts.
Orographic representation is one of the features to which wind simulations are
very sensitive. Hence, Chapter “Discretization of the Region of Interest” introduces
a technique for shaping all involved solids, natural and built, to the required scale in
a given region. Chapter “Wind Field Diagnostic Model” describes a wind field
diagnostic model for downscaling initial, irregular, or coarsely gridded fields, and
underlines the methods’ sensitivity to its input parameters. Deterministic wind field
prediction is addressed in Chapter “Wind Field Deterministic Forecasting”, where
regional numerical weather prediction models, with resolution between 1 and 3 km,
are presented as adequate providers of the requested information. The probabilistic
prediction of wind fields is defined in Chapter “Wind Field Probabilistic
Forecasting” as an ensemble methodology designed for the downscaling wind
model introduced in Chapter “Wind Field Diagnostic Model”. The procedure leans
on ensemble forecasting, a methodology used by major meteorological services for
dealing with the uncertainties inherent to numerical weather predictions.
An example of the approach for Gran Canaria Island, validated with ground
observations, concludes the wind resource part of this inspiring survey.
The, not less forward-looking, solar radiation part begins with Chapter “Solar
Resource Variability”, where the instability of the resource over different scales is
quantified by mean of a predictable variability-smoothing space-time continuum. Its
implications for solar penetration on the power grid and variability mitigation
strategies are also discussed. Chapter “Solar Radiation Forecasting with Statistical
Models” deals with deterministic forecasting and focuses on several statistical
methods for intraday time horizons. Probabilistic forecasting is introduced in
Chapter “Solar Radiation Probabilistic Forecasting” with two approaches for producing
intraday predictions with lead times ranging from one to 6 hours.
Verification metrics developed by the meteorological verification community are
used to evaluate their performances. Chapter “Solar Radiation Maps” concludes the
survey, focusing on the assessment of the resource per se, rather than the assessment
of its variability. Terrain-following mapping of surface irradiation is presented
as an established discipline, in which advances mainly rely on the growth of
computing power. This procedure is applicable for any point on the earth’s surface
and for any desired timescale.